Land use systems analysis – Quo Vadis

A Public Lecture by Professor Michael Obersteiner

4 December 2025 at 16:15 - 17:15 (Finnish time)
Aalto University Hall U7 PWC (U135a), Otakaari 1, Espoo
The lecture can be viewed in Zoom at https://aalto.zoom.us/j/61251496473
Systems Analysis Laboratory
Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis
Aalto University School of Science

Abstract

Land use is the single largest user of natural resources from local to planetary scales. The trajectory of a sustainable Earth system hinges on our ability to anticipate how human societies can thrive while remaining in harmony with nature. Yet the tools predominantly used in global assessments, such as those informing the IPCC, IPBES, and UNEP-IRP, continue to rely on relatively simple scenario frameworks and linear optimization approaches to land allocation. These approaches, while having been valuable, are increasingly misaligned with today’s decision environment, which is increasingly characterized by profound uncertainties in socio-economic drivers, biophysical processes, and finally dynamic Earth system feedbacks. In my talk, I argue that meeting these challenges requires a new generation of land-use systems models that explicitly account for uncertainty, incorporate key feedback processes, and represent dynamically complex behaviors on all levels from the soil to the climate system. I will outline a hierarchically nested modelling framework designed to integrate these dimensions. The talk will conclude by identifying a set of methodological and institutional challenges for building assessment tools that are both scientifically robust and usable in concrete policy contexts.

Bio

Michael Obersteiner is Director of the Environmental Change Institute, and Professor of Global Change and Sustainability, at the University of Oxford. He is a leading researcher in the realm of environmental research and policy; his work spans a variety of science fields from biophysical modelling in ecosystems, forestry and agriculture, to the worlds of economics, finance, and integrated assessment. His projects often embody large-scale, interdisciplinary approaches, particularly in integrated assessment of food, agriculture, climate, biodiversity and land-use – sectors crucial for sustainable development.

Dr Obersteiner's academic credentials include graduate studies in Forest Science at the University of Life Sciences Vienna, economics at both the Institute for Advanced Studies (IIASA) Vienna and Columbia University in New York, and a visiting research tenure with the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences at Novosibirsk, Russia.

In addition to his research, Dr. Obersteiner is a prolific contributor to international environmental governance and strategy. He serves on the United Nations Environment Programme's International Resource Panel (IRP), he works with the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), the European Commission, WWF Netherlands and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD); he is a lead convening author (CLA) to the IPBES, the UNDRR's Global Assessment report and with the Climate Overshoot Commission. He is author of over 300 scientific papers and is a highly cited researcher.

Participation

This event is open to all interested participants. The lecture will last about 45 minutes, followed by questions and discussions.

At 12:00 - 15:00 (Finnish time) on 5 December 2025, Prof. Obersteiner will be the official opponent in the public defence of Nadine-Cyra Freistetter's doctoral dissertation entitled "Long-term scenario modelling for sustainable climate change mitigation and adaption". The defence will be held in Lecture Hall M1 (Otakaari 1).

Aalto Systems Forum

The growing challenge of our time is the need to understand and to manage wholes, i.e. systems. Problems in technology, economy, organisations and the environment are strongly interconnected, include multiple criteria and evolve dynamically over time. Systems Sciences as a field of scientific inquiry develops tools and approaches which help address these problems.

Aalto Systems Forum provides a platform for a dialogue between practitioners and researchers, based on major research results and accompanying insights which are presented by leading international scholars.

Aalto Systems Forum is organized by the Systems Analysis Laboratory research group at the Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis of Aalto University School of Science. http://sal.aalto.fi/en/aaltosystemsforum/