Mats Lindstedt: Experiences of Multi-attribute Risk Analysis in Nuclear Emergency Decision Support

 This thesis examines and describes some experiences from applying multi-attribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency decision support. A simulated accident was used as an exercise and radiation authority experts applied different decision analysis methods to reach a suggestion for appropriate countermeasure strategies.

 Decision conferencing gives the participants a common framework from which to discuss and analyse the decision situation. The use of a neutral facilitator helps keep the discussions focused and ensures that the appropriate steps are taken in the right order. The use of decision analysis software increases the understanding by visualising the model and computer algorithms can provide fast analyses, e.g. what-if type of analyses.

 Decision analysis interviews ensure that the decision makers examine each issue carefully. The opinions given when using decision analysis interviews seemed more coherent compared to those given in the decision conferences. Decision analysis interviews require, however, much more time and effort than decision conferencing. Therefore it could be argued that the interviewing approach is most useful in early training phases.

 With modern software intervals can be used in global sensitivity analyses. The first application would seem to be to conduct worst case analyses, but more refined analyses are also possible. The technique needs, however, to be implemented and tested.