Title: Decision Theoretical Approach to Pilot Simulation

Authors: Kai Virtanen, Tuomas Raivio and Raimo P. Hämäläinen

Status: Journal of Aircraft, Vol. 36, No. 4, 1999, pp. 632-641.

Keywords: Air combat; Decision analysis; Decision support; Influence diagram; Simulation.

In this paper, we simulate and analyze pilot decision making in one-on-one air combat using an influence diagram. Unlike most of the existing approaches, an influence diagram graphically describes the factors of a decision process and explicitly handles the decision maker’s preferences under conditions of uncertainty. In the pilot decision model, the possible combat situations related to each maneuver alternative are associated with a probability and a utility. Influence diagram analysis produces a probability distribution of the overall utility that represents the successfulness of a maneuver and gives information to make rational maneuvering decisions. Sensitivity analysis determines the impacts of different factors on the outcome of the maneuvering decision. The effects of sensor information that will reduce the uncertainty of the model, are evaluated using Bayesian reasoning. The model can be utilized in the analysis of a single decision situation or as an automated decision making system that selects combat maneuvers in air combat simulators.