Title: Simulating the worst case rediction error of system trajectories

Authors: Tuomas Raivio, Harri Ehtamo and Raimo P. Hämäläinen

Status: Proc. of the European Simulation Multiconference, Budapest, June 1996, pp. 299-303.


The paper deals with predicting the movement of a dynamic system that is observed only at discrete intervals. We present a study where the largest possible prediction error for an agile fighter aircraft against a given prediction scheme is evaluated. We adopt a worst-case analysis strategy where the aircraft is assumed to intentionally maximize the prediction error. The worst-case estimates are obtained by applying optimal control methods to the aircraft simulation model. The results show that for an agile aircraft the worst case error increases very rapidly with the increase of the updating interval.