Title: Modeling Pilot Decision Making by an Influence Diagram

Authors: Kai Virtanen, Tuomas Raivio and Raimo P. Hämäläinen

Status: Proc. of the 1998 AIAA Modeling & Simulation Technologies Conference, Boston, MA, USA, August 10-12, 1998, pp. 447-457.

Keywords: Air combat; Decision analysis; Decision support; Influence diagram; Simulation.

We apply an influence diagram to model pilot decision making in one versus one air combat. An influence diagram graphically describes the factors of a decision process under uncertainty and takes into account all available information to provide logical decisions. In the constructed model, the possible combat situations related to each maneuver alternative are associated with a probability and a utility. Influence diagram analysis produces probability distributions of the overall utility that are used in selecting the preferred maneuver. Sensitivity analysis determines the impacts of different factors on the outcome of the maneuvering decision. The effects of sensor information that will reduce the uncertainty of the model, are evaluated using Bayesian reasoning. The model can be utilized in the analysis of a single decision situation or as an automated decision making system that selects combat maneuvers in air combat simulators.